VIPS
Vipshop Holdings Limited
$14.85
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.4% below fair value
You pay
$14.85
Bear
$28.50
Fair
$32.57
Bull
$36.64
Bear
$28.50
+91.9%
$2.10 × 16x P/E
Fair
$32.57
+119.3%
$2.10 × 18x P/E
Bull
$36.64
+146.8%
$2.10 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.50 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $18.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 101% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1479 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples