VIPS
Vipshop Holdings Limited
$14.25
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.2% below fair value
You pay
$14.25
Bear
$28.48
Fair
$32.55
Bull
$36.62
Bear
$28.48
+99.9%
$2.10 × 16x P/E
Fair
$32.55
+128.5%
$2.10 × 18x P/E
Bull
$36.62
+157.0%
$2.10 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.50 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $18.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 101% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1478 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples