VIPS
Vipshop Holdings Limited
$12.96
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.5% below fair value
You pay
$12.96
Bear
$32.90
Fair
$37.60
Bull
$42.30
Bear
$32.90
+153.8%
$2.12 × 16x P/E
Fair
$37.60
+190.1%
$2.12 × 18x P/E
Bull
$42.30
+226.4%
$2.12 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.7x
2.12$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$16.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
133%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.12, the base-case value is $37.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.17 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1498 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples