VIK
Viking Holdings Ltd
$87.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.6% below fair value
You pay
$87.24
Bear
$73.43
Fair
$135.56
Bull
$213.09
Bear
$73.43
-15.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$135.56
+55.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$213.09
+144.3%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
25.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.2%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$107.54
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $135.56 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $107.54 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions