VIK
Viking Holdings Ltd
$98.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.8% below fair value
You pay
$98.19
Bear
$56.03
Fair
$104.25
Bull
$164.43
Bear
$56.03
-42.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$104.25
+6.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$164.43
+67.5%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
36.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.1%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $102.15 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.25 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions