VICR
Vicor Corporation
$305.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 139.2% above fair value
You pay
$305.61
Bear
$68.33
Fair
$127.79
Bull
$208.07
Bear
$68.33
-77.6%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$127.79
-58.2%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$208.07
-31.9%
31% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
23.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
126.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
36.0%
vs 23.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$347.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $127.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $347.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions