VICR
Vicor Corporation
$285.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 58.3% above fair value
You pay
$285.34
Bear
$96.40
Fair
$180.25
Bull
$293.52
Bear
$96.40
-66.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$180.25
-36.8%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$293.52
+2.9%
31% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
117.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
35.0%
vs 23.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $387.50 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $180.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $387.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions