VICI
VICI Properties Inc.
$24.79
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.6% below fair value
You pay
$24.79
Bear
$45.94
Fair
$55.78
Bull
$65.62
Bear
$45.94
+85.3%
$2.52 FFO × 18x
Fair
$55.78
+125.1%
$2.52 FFO × 22x
Bull
$65.62
+164.8%
$2.52 FFO × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.52) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$29.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
At $2.52 FFO/share with a 22x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $55.78 per share. Dividend yield: 7.3%. DDM cross-check: $50.31.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 7.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $29.33 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 90% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify