AlphaMadera

VICI VICI Properties Inc.

$24.02

Real Estate Investment Trust 85%

P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 56.9% below fair value

You pay $24.02

Bear $45.94

Fair $55.78

Bull $65.62

Bear $45.94 +91.2% $2.52 FFO × 18x

Fair $55.78 +132.2% $2.52 FFO × 22x

Bull $65.62 +173.2% $2.52 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

22.1x

FFO per Share

2.52$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.52) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 9.5x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (28 analysts) $28.73

Divergence from AlphaVal 94%

Summary

At $2.52 FFO/share with a 22x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $55.78 per share. Dividend yield: 7.5%. DDM cross-check: $50.31.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 7.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $28.73 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify