VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc.
$40.98
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 242.3% above fair value

You pay $40.98
Bear $9.58
Fair $11.97
Bull $14.36
Bear $9.58 -76.6% $0.20 × 12x P/E
Fair $11.97 -70.8% $0.20 × 15x P/E
Bull $14.36 -65.0% $0.20 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 207.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.97 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 32%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples