VIAV
Viavi Solutions Inc.
$40.98
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 242.3% above fair value
You pay
$40.98
Bear
$9.58
Fair
$11.97
Bull
$14.36
Bear
$9.58
-76.6%
$0.20 × 12x P/E
Fair
$11.97
-70.8%
$0.20 × 15x P/E
Bull
$14.36
-65.0%
$0.20 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
207.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.97 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 32%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples