VG Venture Global, Inc.
$12.17
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 34.2% below fair value

You pay $12.17
Bear $14.80
Fair $18.50
Bull $22.19
Bear $14.80 +21.6% $0.87 × 18x P/E
Fair $18.50 +52.0% $0.87 × 22x P/E
Bull $22.19 +82.4% $0.87 × 27x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.13 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.50 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples