VG
Venture Global, Inc.
$13.83
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.1% below fair value
You pay
$13.83
Bear
$14.38
Fair
$17.98
Bull
$21.57
Bear
$14.38
+4.0%
$0.86 × 18x P/E
Fair
$17.98
+30.0%
$0.86 × 22x P/E
Bull
$21.57
+56.0%
$0.86 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.78 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.98 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.78 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples