VFF
Village Farms International, Inc.
$2.53
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.3% below fair value
You pay
$2.53
Bear
$2.16
Fair
$2.70
Bull
$3.24
Bear
$2.16
-14.6%
$0.27 × 8x P/E
Fair
$2.70
+6.7%
$0.27 × 10x P/E
Bull
$3.24
+28.1%
$0.27 × 12x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
10.0x
0.27$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$6.15
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
Applying a 10x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.27, the base-case value is $2.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $6.15 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples