VFF
Village Farms International, Inc.
$2.60
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.8% below fair value
You pay
$2.60
Bear
$2.80
Fair
$3.50
Bull
$4.20
Bear
$2.80
+7.7%
$0.28 × 8x P/E
Fair
$3.50
+34.7%
$0.28 × 10x P/E
Bull
$4.20
+61.7%
$0.28 × 12x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (10x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $6.15 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.50 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $6.15 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples