VFC V.F. Corporation
$13.67
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 42.4% above fair value

You pay $13.67
Bear $7.68
Fair $9.60
Bull $11.52
Bear $7.68 -43.8% $0.64 × 12x P/E
Fair $9.60 -29.8% $0.64 × 15x P/E
Bull $11.52 -15.7% $0.64 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.64$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.4x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (58 analysts) $19.44
Divergence from AlphaVal 51%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.64, the base-case value is $9.60 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $19.44 (from 58 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples