VFC
V.F. Corporation
$16.07
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 67.4% above fair value
You pay
$16.07
Bear
$7.68
Fair
$9.60
Bull
$11.52
Bear
$7.68
-52.2%
$0.64 × 12x P/E
Fair
$9.60
-40.3%
$0.64 × 15x P/E
Bull
$11.52
-28.3%
$0.64 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.64$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (58 analysts)
$18.77
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.64, the base-case value is $9.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $18.77 (from 58 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples