VEOEY
Veolia Environnement S.A.
$17.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 198.2% above fair value
You pay
$17.91
Bear
$1.19
Fair
$6.01
Bull
$10.39
Bear
$1.19
-93.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$6.01
-66.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$10.39
-42.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
25.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.3%
vs 7.1% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $6.01 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1237 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions