VEEV
Veeva Systems Inc.
$320.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.8% above fair value
You pay
$320.55
Bear
$175.30
Fair
$261.05
Bull
$359.76
Bear
$175.30
-45.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$261.05
-18.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$359.76
+12.2%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
44.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.5%
vs 16.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (43 analysts)
$294.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $261.05 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 52% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions