VEEV
Veeva Systems Inc.
$275.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.7% above fair value
You pay
$275.09
Bear
$174.72
Fair
$260.19
Bull
$358.57
Bear
$174.72
-36.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$260.19
-5.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$358.57
+30.3%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
37.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.2%
vs 16.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (43 analysts)
$290.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $260.19 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 52% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions