VCYT
Veracyte, Inc.
$43.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.5% below fair value
You pay
$43.12
Bear
$30.11
Fair
$50.45
Bull
$75.83
Bear
$30.11
-30.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$50.45
+17.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$75.83
+75.9%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
32.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.6%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$57.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
12%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $50.45 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 66% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions