VCTR
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.
$98.52
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.0% above fair value
You pay
$98.52
Bear
$68.25
Fair
$97.50
Bull
$126.75
Bear
$68.25
-30.7%
ROTCE 10.2% → 0.97x TBV
Fair
$97.50
-1.0%
ROTCE 13.6% → 1.50x TBV
Bull
$126.75
+28.7%
ROTCE 15.7% → 1.82x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (10.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.54x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.25 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.50 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly