VCTR
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.
$96.49
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.6% below fair value
You pay
$96.49
Bear
$68.67
Fair
$98.10
Bull
$127.53
Bear
$68.67
-28.8%
ROTCE 10.2% → 0.97x TBV
Fair
$98.10
+1.7%
ROTCE 13.6% → 1.50x TBV
Bull
$127.53
+32.2%
ROTCE 15.7% → 1.82x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (10.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.49x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.25 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $98.10 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly