VCEL
Vericel Corporation
$40.30
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 55.6% above fair value
You pay
$40.30
Bear
$13.74
Fair
$25.89
Bull
$39.23
Bear
$13.74
-65.9%
11% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$25.89
-35.7%
18% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$39.23
-2.7%
24% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
18.0%
23.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (18%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
61%
Implied Market Multiple
7.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$61.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Projecting 18% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 9% to 23% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $25.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $61.33 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep