VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
$112.24
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.1% above fair value
You pay
$112.24
Bear
$75.37
Fair
$94.21
Bull
$113.05
Bear
$75.37
-32.9%
$5.61 × 13x P/E
Fair
$94.21
-16.1%
$5.61 × 17x P/E
Bull
$113.05
+0.7%
$5.61 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.8x
5.61$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$115.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.61, the base-case value is $94.21 per share. DDM cross-check: $163.14.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $163.14 (above our primary estimate by 73%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples