VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
$75.19
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.3% below fair value
You pay
$75.19
Bear
$73.66
Fair
$92.08
Bull
$110.49
Bear
$73.66
-2.0%
$5.61 × 13x P/E
Fair
$92.08
+22.5%
$5.61 × 17x P/E
Bull
$110.49
+46.9%
$5.61 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.67 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.08 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $238.80 (above our primary estimate by 153%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples