VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
$99.98
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.0% above fair value
You pay
$99.98
Bear
$74.79
Fair
$93.48
Bull
$112.17
Bear
$74.79
-25.2%
$5.61 × 13x P/E
Fair
$93.48
-6.5%
$5.61 × 17x P/E
Bull
$112.17
+12.2%
$5.61 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.29 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $93.48 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $238.80 (above our primary estimate by 153%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples