V
Visa Inc.
$328.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.7% below fair value
You pay
$328.88
Bear
$219.25
Fair
$337.93
Bull
$468.03
Bear
$219.25
-33.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$337.93
+2.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$468.03
+42.3%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
30.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $363.36 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $337.93 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions