V
Visa Inc.
$357.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.6% above fair value
You pay
$357.75
Bear
$226.25
Fair
$348.71
Bull
$482.96
Bear
$226.25
-36.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$348.71
-2.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$482.96
+35.0%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
33.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.7%
vs 14.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $394.15 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $348.71 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions