V
Visa Inc.
$385.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.1% above fair value
You pay
$385.45
Bear
$221.06
Fair
$340.70
Bull
$471.86
Bear
$221.06
-42.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$340.70
-11.6%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$471.86
+22.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
33.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.0%
vs 14.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (62 analysts)
$422.24
Divergence from AlphaVal
19%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $340.70 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions