UTZ
Utz Brands, Inc.
$14.31
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8588.3% above fair value
You pay
$14.31
Bear
$0.14
Fair
$0.16
Bull
$0.19
Bear
$0.14
-99.1%
$0.01 × 15x P/E
Fair
$0.16
-98.8%
$0.01 × 18x P/E
Bull
$0.19
-98.6%
$0.01 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.1x
0.01$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
1573.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$12.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
99%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.01, the base-case value is $0.16 per share. DDM cross-check: $5.34.
Warnings
The company pays out 2769% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.34 (above our primary estimate by 3140%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.83 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples