UTL
Unitil Corporation
$53.61
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.7% above fair value
You pay
$53.61
Bear
$43.15
Fair
$49.32
Bull
$55.48
Bear
$43.15
-19.5%
$2.97 × 14x P/E
Fair
$49.32
-8.0%
$2.97 × 16x P/E
Bull
$55.48
+3.5%
$2.97 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.32 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples