UTL
Unitil Corporation
$52.26
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.0% above fair value
You pay
$52.26
Bear
$41.58
Fair
$47.52
Bull
$53.46
Bear
$41.58
-20.4%
$2.97 × 14x P/E
Fair
$47.52
-9.1%
$2.97 × 16x P/E
Bull
$53.46
+2.3%
$2.97 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.97$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$56.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.97, the base-case value is $47.52 per share. DDM cross-check: $47.28.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples