UTI
Universal Technical Institute, Inc.
$37.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.4% above fair value
You pay
$37.78
Bear
$18.57
Fair
$31.63
Bull
$46.64
Bear
$18.57
-50.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$31.63
-16.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$46.64
+23.4%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
45.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.8%
vs 16.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.75 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $44.75 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions