UTI
Universal Technical Institute, Inc.
$21.99
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 28.4% below fair value
You pay
$21.99
Bear
$18.16
Fair
$30.73
Bull
$45.14
Bear
$18.16
-17.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$30.73
+39.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$45.14
+105.3%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
25.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.0%
vs 16.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$41.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
25%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $30.73 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $41.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions