UTI
Universal Technical Institute, Inc.
$40.06
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.3% above fair value
You pay
$40.06
Bear
$18.48
Fair
$31.48
Bull
$46.41
Bear
$18.48
-53.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$31.48
-21.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$46.41
+15.9%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
47.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.48 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $44.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions