UTHR
United Therapeutics Corporation
$533.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.2% below fair value
You pay
$533.12
Bear
$535.88
Fair
$890.82
Bull
$1,314.29
Bear
$535.88
+0.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$890.82
+67.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,314.29
+146.5%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
22.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.6%
vs 17.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$630.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $890.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $630.33 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions