UTHR
United Therapeutics Corporation
$523.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.4% below fair value
You pay
$523.63
Bear
$488.03
Fair
$810.93
Bull
$1,196.18
Bear
$488.03
-6.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$810.93
+54.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,196.18
+128.4%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
22.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.4%
vs 17.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $635.20 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $810.93 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $635.20 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 40% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions