UTHR
United Therapeutics Corporation
$568.43
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.0% below fair value
You pay
$568.43
Bear
$489.02
Fair
$812.05
Bull
$1,197.43
Bear
$489.02
-14.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$812.05
+42.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,197.43
+110.7%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
24.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $636.83 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $812.05 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $636.83 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 39% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions