USPH
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
$61.96
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.4% below fair value
You pay
$61.96
Bear
$51.86
Fair
$64.83
Bull
$77.79
Bear
$51.86
-16.3%
$3.04 × 15x P/E
Fair
$64.83
+4.6%
$3.04 × 19x P/E
Bull
$77.79
+25.5%
$3.04 × 23x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.83 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 114%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 128% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $36.49 (below our primary estimate by 36%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $96.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples