USPH
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.
$85.69
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 50.2% above fair value
You pay
$85.69
Bear
$45.63
Fair
$57.04
Bull
$68.44
Bear
$45.63
-46.8%
$3.04 × 15x P/E
Fair
$57.04
-33.4%
$3.04 × 19x P/E
Bull
$68.44
-20.1%
$3.04 × 23x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.8x
3.04$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.04, the base-case value is $57.04 per share. DDM cross-check: $34.73.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 114%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 129% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $34.73 (below our primary estimate by 39%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $90.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples