USFD
US Foods Holding Corp.
$100.91
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 92.0% above fair value
You pay
$100.91
Bear
$43.28
Fair
$52.56
Bull
$61.83
Bear
$43.28
-57.1%
$2.94 × 15x P/E
Fair
$52.56
-47.9%
$2.94 × 18x P/E
Bull
$61.83
-38.7%
$2.94 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.9x
2.94$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
34.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$117.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
55%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.94, the base-case value is $52.56 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $117.67 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples