USFD
US Foods Holding Corp.
$80.47
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.3% above fair value
You pay
$80.47
Bear
$61.75
Fair
$74.97
Bull
$88.20
Bear
$61.75
-23.3%
$3.21 × 16x P/E
Fair
$74.97
-6.8%
$3.21 × 20x P/E
Bull
$88.20
+9.6%
$3.21 × 23x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $107.78 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $107.78 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples