URI
United Rentals, Inc.
$938.62
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 105.3% above fair value
You pay
$938.62
Bear
$123.51
Fair
$457.16
Bull
$813.72
Bear
$123.51
-86.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$457.16
-51.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$813.72
-13.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
63.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1044.22 from 40 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $457.16 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1044.22 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions