URI
United Rentals, Inc.
$1,009.86
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 169.8% above fair value
You pay
$1,009.86
Bear
$180.35
Fair
$374.29
Bull
$577.04
Bear
$180.35
-82.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$374.29
-62.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$577.04
-42.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
45.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.1%
vs 12.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$1233.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $374.29 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1233.00 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions