URBN
Urban Outfitters, Inc.
$70.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.7% below fair value
You pay
$70.19
Bear
$67.70
Fair
$89.60
Bull
$110.42
Bear
$67.70
-3.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$89.60
+27.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$110.42
+57.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
15.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.5%
vs 8.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.00 from 58 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.60 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions