URBN
Urban Outfitters, Inc.
$73.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.2% below fair value
You pay
$73.01
Bear
$65.17
Fair
$85.09
Bull
$103.83
Bear
$65.17
-10.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$85.09
+16.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$103.83
+42.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.13 from 58 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $85.09 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions