URBN
Urban Outfitters, Inc.
$80.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.1% above fair value
You pay
$80.96
Bear
$48.03
Fair
$66.32
Bull
$84.18
Bear
$48.03
-40.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$66.32
-18.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$84.18
+4.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
25.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.3%
vs 9.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (58 analysts)
$87.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $66.32 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions