UNM
Unum Group
$84.52
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.8% below fair value
You pay
$84.52
Bear
$38.81
Fair
$96.94
Bull
$131.83
Bear
$38.81
-54.1%
ROTCE 5.1% → 0.57x TBV
Fair
$96.94
+14.7%
ROTCE 6.9% → 1.43x TBV
Bull
$131.83
+56.0%
ROTCE 7.9% → 1.94x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (6.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.25x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $98.33 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.94 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly