UNM Unum Group
$87.93
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 9.9% below fair value

You pay $87.93
Bear $39.07
Fair $97.59
Bull $132.71
Bear $39.07 -55.6% ROTCE 5.1% → 0.57x TBV
Fair $97.59 +11.0% ROTCE 6.9% → 1.43x TBV
Bull $132.71 +50.9% ROTCE 7.9% → 1.94x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (6.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.31x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.50 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.59 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly