UNM
Unum Group
$92.58
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.8% below fair value
You pay
$92.58
Bear
$38.93
Fair
$97.25
Bull
$132.23
Bear
$38.93
-57.9%
ROTCE 5.1% → 0.57x TBV
Fair
$97.25
+5.0%
ROTCE 6.9% → 1.43x TBV
Bull
$132.23
+42.8%
ROTCE 7.9% → 1.94x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
6.9%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (6.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.36x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$101.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
With ROTCE of 6.9% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.43x on $68.00 tangible book, implying $97.25 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly