UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$388.47
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.2% above fair value
You pay
$388.47
Bear
$209.67
Fair
$262.09
Bull
$314.51
Bear
$209.67
-46.0%
$15.19 × 10x P/E
Fair
$262.09
-32.5%
$15.19 × 13x P/E
Bull
$314.51
-19.0%
$15.19 × 15x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (13x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $392.40 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $262.09 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $392.40 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples