UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$424.62
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 53.9% above fair value
You pay
$424.62
Bear
$220.72
Fair
$275.91
Bull
$331.09
Bear
$220.72
-48.0%
$15.19 × 10x P/E
Fair
$275.91
-35.0%
$15.19 × 13x P/E
Bull
$331.09
-22.0%
$15.19 × 15x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (13x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $431.88 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $275.91 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $431.88 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples