UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$396.59
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 73.7% above fair value
You pay
$396.59
Bear
$182.70
Fair
$228.38
Bull
$274.05
Bear
$182.70
-53.9%
$18.08 × 10x P/E
Fair
$228.38
-42.4%
$18.08 × 13x P/E
Bull
$274.05
-30.9%
$18.08 × 15x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
12.6x
18.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (13x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$473.89
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Summary
Applying a 13x P/E to adjusted EPS of $18.08, the base-case value is $228.38 per share. DDM cross-check: $8253.79.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 37%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $8253.79 (above our primary estimate by 3514%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $473.89 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples