UNF
UniFirst Corporation
$258.08
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 93.5% above fair value
You pay
$258.08
Bear
$112.72
Fair
$133.37
Bull
$151.67
Bear
$112.72
-56.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$133.37
-48.3%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$151.67
-41.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
32.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.3%
vs 6.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$262.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $133.37 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $262.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions