UMBF
UMB Financial Corporation
$132.91
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% above fair value
You pay
$132.91
Bear
$93.03
Fair
$132.90
Bull
$172.77
Bear
$93.03
-30.0%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.19x TBV
Fair
$132.90
+-0.0%
ROTCE 13.1% → 1.86x TBV
Bull
$172.77
+30.0%
ROTCE 15.1% → 2.26x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.1%
8.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.88x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$166.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.1% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.86x on $70.66 tangible book, implying $132.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $37.11.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $37.11 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly