ULH
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.
$17.41
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.3% below fair value
You pay
$17.41
Bear
$14.12
Fair
$19.41
Bull
$24.71
Bear
$14.12
-18.9%
$3.53 × 4x
Fair
$19.41
+11.5%
$3.53 × 6x
Bull
$24.71
+41.9%
$3.53 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
3.53$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.53)
Implied Market Multiple
4.9x
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $3.53 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $19.41 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.4x.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing