UI
Ubiquiti Inc.
$583.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 91.1% above fair value
You pay
$583.13
Bear
$191.80
Fair
$305.19
Bull
$433.11
Bear
$191.80
-67.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$305.19
-47.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$433.11
-25.7%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
54.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.5%
vs 15.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$672.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
55%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $305.19 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $672.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions