UI
Ubiquiti Inc.
$525.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.7% above fair value
You pay
$525.38
Bear
$243.34
Fair
$387.27
Bull
$549.66
Bear
$243.34
-53.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$387.27
-26.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$549.66
+4.6%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
51.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.7%
vs 15.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $672.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $387.27 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $672.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions