UI
Ubiquiti Inc.
$620.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 91.8% above fair value
You pay
$620.52
Bear
$234.48
Fair
$323.57
Bull
$414.07
Bear
$234.48
-62.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$323.57
-47.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$414.07
-33.3%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
40.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.6%
vs 11.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$489.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $323.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $489.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions