UHS
Universal Health Services, Inc.
$185.89
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.6% below fair value
You pay
$185.89
Bear
$283.86
Fair
$354.82
Bull
$425.79
Bear
$283.86
+52.7%
$23.10 × 12x P/E
Fair
$354.82
+90.9%
$23.10 × 15x P/E
Bull
$425.79
+129.1%
$23.10 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.4x
23.1$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (44 analysts)
$193.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
84%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $23.10, the base-case value is $354.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $193.00 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 84% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples