UHAL
U-Haul Holding Company
$68.71
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 63.6% below fair value
You pay
$68.71
Bear
$151.15
Fair
$188.94
Bull
$226.73
Bear
$151.15
+120.0%
$12.60 × 12x P/E
Fair
$188.94
+175.0%
$12.60 × 15x P/E
Bull
$226.73
+230.0%
$12.60 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
5.5x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $12.60, the base-case value is $188.94 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 5148%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 833% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples