UGI
UGI Corporation
$36.62
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.8% below fair value
You pay
$36.62
Bear
$43.81
Fair
$50.06
Bull
$56.32
Bear
$43.81
+19.6%
$3.24 × 14x P/E
Fair
$50.06
+36.7%
$3.24 × 16x P/E
Bull
$56.32
+53.8%
$3.24 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.06 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $23.28 (below our primary estimate by 55%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples