UGI
UGI Corporation
$38.61
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.9% below fair value
You pay
$38.61
Bear
$43.26
Fair
$49.44
Bull
$55.62
Bear
$43.26
+12.0%
$3.09 × 14x P/E
Fair
$49.44
+28.0%
$3.09 × 16x P/E
Bull
$55.62
+44.1%
$3.09 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.09$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.09, the base-case value is $49.44 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.48.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $22.48 (below our primary estimate by 55%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples