UFPT
UFP Technologies, Inc.
$256.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.4% above fair value
You pay
$256.74
Bear
$150.31
Fair
$226.40
Bull
$306.11
Bear
$150.31
-41.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$226.40
-11.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$306.11
+19.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
29.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.1%
vs 12.5% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $226.40 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions