UFPT
UFP Technologies, Inc.
$293.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.6% below fair value
You pay
$293.75
Bear
$190.33
Fair
$307.79
Bull
$438.50
Bear
$190.33
-35.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$307.79
+4.8%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$438.50
+49.3%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
29.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.4%
vs 14.9% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $307.79 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions