UFPI
UFP Industries, Inc.
$80.54
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.1% below fair value
You pay
$80.54
Bear
$84.01
Fair
$103.39
Bull
$121.51
Bear
$84.01
+4.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$103.39
+28.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$121.51
+50.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
13.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $97.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.39 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions