UFPI
UFP Industries, Inc.
$84.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.4% below fair value
You pay
$84.34
Bear
$84.01
Fair
$103.39
Bull
$121.51
Bear
$84.01
-0.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$103.39
+22.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$121.51
+44.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
14.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.7%
vs 8.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $97.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.39 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions