UFPI
UFP Industries, Inc.
$74.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.0% below fair value
You pay
$74.21
Bear
$87.37
Fair
$107.60
Bull
$126.52
Bear
$87.37
+17.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$107.60
+45.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$126.52
+70.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.2%
vs 8.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$99.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $107.60 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions