UE
Urban Edge Properties
$19.34
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.3% below fair value
You pay
$19.34
Bear
$24.05
Fair
$29.44
Bull
$34.82
Bear
$24.05
+24.4%
$1.85 FFO × 12x
Fair
$29.44
+52.2%
$1.85 FFO × 15x
Bull
$34.82
+80.1%
$1.85 FFO × 18x
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.85) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$23.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
At $1.85 FFO/share with a 15x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $29.44 per share. Dividend yield: 4.2%. DDM cross-check: $33.41.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify