UE Urban Edge Properties
$22.28
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 24.5% below fair value

You pay $22.28
Bear $24.30
Fair $29.51
Bull $34.72
Bear $24.30 +9.1% $1.85 FFO × 14x
Fair $29.51 +32.5% $1.85 FFO × 17x
Bull $34.72 +55.8% $1.85 FFO × 20x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.85) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.51 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify