UDMY
Udemy, Inc.
$4.63
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 749.9% above fair value
You pay
$4.63
Bear
$0.45
Fair
$0.54
Bull
$0.64
Bear
$0.45
-90.3%
$0.03 × 17x P/E
Fair
$0.54
-88.2%
$0.03 × 21x P/E
Bull
$0.64
-86.2%
$0.03 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.2x
0.03$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
180.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$13.72
Divergence from AlphaVal
96%
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.03, the base-case value is $0.54 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $13.72 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 96% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples