UDMY
Udemy, Inc.
$4.63
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 219.8% above fair value
You pay
$4.63
Bear
$1.19
Fair
$1.45
Bull
$1.71
Bear
$1.19
-74.3%
$0.03 × 17x P/E
Fair
$1.45
-68.7%
$0.03 × 21x P/E
Bull
$1.71
-63.1%
$0.03 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
175.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1.45 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $5.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples