UBSI
United Bankshares, Inc.
$46.69
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.9% below fair value
You pay
$46.69
Bear
$35.35
Fair
$54.83
Bull
$66.53
Bear
$35.35
-24.3%
ROTCE 10.1% → 1.40x TBV
Fair
$54.83
+17.4%
ROTCE 13.5% → 2.17x TBV
Bull
$66.53
+42.5%
ROTCE 15.5% → 2.63x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.5%
8.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.85x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$49.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.5% vs. 8.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.17x on $25.29 tangible book, implying $54.83 per share. DDM cross-check: $21.08.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.08 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly