UBSI
United Bankshares, Inc.
$47.58
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.0% below fair value
You pay
$47.58
Bear
$34.47
Fair
$53.47
Bull
$64.87
Bear
$34.47
-27.6%
ROTCE 10.1% → 1.42x TBV
Fair
$53.47
+12.4%
ROTCE 13.5% → 2.20x TBV
Bull
$64.87
+36.3%
ROTCE 15.5% → 2.67x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.47 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.14 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly