UBSI
United Bankshares, Inc.
$43.26
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.8% below fair value
You pay
$43.26
Bear
$33.93
Fair
$52.64
Bull
$63.87
Bear
$33.93
-21.6%
ROTCE 10.1% → 1.40x TBV
Fair
$52.64
+21.7%
ROTCE 13.5% → 2.17x TBV
Bull
$63.87
+47.6%
ROTCE 15.5% → 2.63x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.73x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.64 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $20.95 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly