UBSI
United Bankshares, Inc.
$47.30
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.3% below fair value
You pay
$47.30
Bear
$35.56
Fair
$55.17
Bull
$66.94
Bear
$35.56
-24.8%
ROTCE 10.1% → 1.42x TBV
Fair
$55.17
+16.6%
ROTCE 13.5% → 2.21x TBV
Bull
$66.94
+41.5%
ROTCE 15.5% → 2.68x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.5%
8.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.89x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$49.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.5% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.21x on $25.00 tangible book, implying $55.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $21.31.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.31 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly