UBER
Uber Technologies, Inc.
$70.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.1% below fair value
You pay
$70.50
Bear
$110.09
Fair
$202.21
Bull
$317.63
Bear
$110.09
+56.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$202.21
+186.8%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$317.63
+350.5%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
16.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.1%
vs 19.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (63 analysts)
$104.56
Divergence from AlphaVal
93%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $202.21 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $104.56 (from 63 analysts). Our estimate is 93% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions