UBER
Uber Technologies, Inc.
$71.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.2% below fair value
You pay
$71.64
Bear
$84.90
Fair
$156.25
Bull
$245.71
Bear
$84.90
+18.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$156.25
+118.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$245.71
+243.0%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $101.95 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $156.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $101.95 (from 61 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions