UBER
Uber Technologies, Inc.
$71.99
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.0% below fair value
You pay
$71.99
Bear
$84.98
Fair
$156.43
Bull
$246.06
Bear
$84.98
+18.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$156.43
+117.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$246.06
+241.8%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.6%
vs 19.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $102.25 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $156.43 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $102.25 (from 61 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions