UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
$106.49
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.7% below fair value
You pay
$106.49
Bear
$132.68
Fair
$216.06
Bull
$302.59
Bear
$132.68
+24.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$216.06
+102.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$302.59
+184.1%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
15.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.3%
vs 12.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (47 analysts)
$159.11
Divergence from AlphaVal
36%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $216.06 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $159.11 (from 47 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions