UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
$97.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.3% below fair value
You pay
$97.93
Bear
$114.85
Fair
$193.08
Bull
$275.32
Bear
$114.85
+17.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$193.08
+97.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$275.32
+181.1%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.3%
vs 12.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (47 analysts)
$154.58
Divergence from AlphaVal
25%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $193.08 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions