UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
$99.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.9% below fair value
You pay
$99.96
Bear
$78.29
Fair
$134.98
Bull
$193.07
Bear
$78.29
-21.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$134.98
+35.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$193.07
+93.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $136.10 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $134.98 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions