UAL
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
$118.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.9% below fair value
You pay
$118.27
Bear
$84.31
Fair
$147.56
Bull
$213.19
Bear
$84.31
-28.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$147.56
+24.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$213.19
+80.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
22.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 12.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $160.89 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $147.56 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions