UAA
Under Armour, Inc.
$4.93
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.8% below fair value
You pay
$4.93
Bear
$6.24
Fair
$7.80
Bull
$9.36
Bear
$6.24
+26.6%
$0.52 × 12x P/E
Fair
$7.80
+58.2%
$0.52 × 15x P/E
Bull
$9.36
+89.9%
$0.52 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.52$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (74 analysts)
$5.79
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.52, the base-case value is $7.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $5.79 (from 74 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples