UA
Under Armour, Inc.
$4.63
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.6% below fair value
You pay
$4.63
Bear
$6.24
Fair
$7.80
Bull
$9.36
Bear
$6.24
+34.6%
$0.52 × 12x P/E
Fair
$7.80
+68.3%
$0.52 × 15x P/E
Bull
$9.36
+101.9%
$0.52 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.52$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (68 analysts)
$5.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
42%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.52, the base-case value is $7.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $5.50 (from 68 analysts). Our estimate is 42% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 41% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples