UA
Under Armour, Inc.
$5.40
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.6% below fair value
You pay
$5.40
Bear
$5.97
Fair
$7.46
Bull
$8.95
Bear
$5.97
+10.5%
$0.57 × 12x P/E
Fair
$7.46
+38.1%
$0.57 × 15x P/E
Bull
$8.95
+65.7%
$0.57 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.50 from 68 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.46 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $5.50 (from 68 analysts). Our estimate is 55% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples