TYL
Tyler Technologies, Inc.
$360.87
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.6% below fair value
You pay
$360.87
Bear
$279.45
Fair
$443.24
Bull
$629.65
Bear
$279.45
-22.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$443.24
+22.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$629.65
+74.5%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
27.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.1%
vs 15.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$409.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $443.24 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 48% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions