TWLO
Twilio Inc.
$187.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.7% above fair value
You pay
$187.88
Bear
$94.91
Fair
$139.48
Bull
$188.47
Bear
$94.91
-49.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$139.48
-25.8%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$188.47
+0.3%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
46.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $192.25 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $139.48 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 1775% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $192.25 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions