TWLO
Twilio Inc.
$266.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 109.4% above fair value
You pay
$266.68
Bear
$81.25
Fair
$127.38
Bull
$180.88
Bear
$81.25
-69.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$127.38
-52.2%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$180.88
-32.2%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
67.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
27.5%
vs 16.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$267.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $127.38 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 1775% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $267.00 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions