TWI
Titan International, Inc.
$6.82
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 64.0% below fair value
You pay
$6.82
Bear
$15.80
Fair
$18.96
Bull
$22.12
Bear
$15.80
+131.7%
$0.79 × 20x
Fair
$18.96
+178.0%
$0.79 × 24x
Bull
$22.12
+224.3%
$0.79 × 28x
Adjust Assumptions
24.0x
0.79$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.79)
Implied Market Multiple
8.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$13.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
46%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.79 at a 24x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $18.96 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.0x.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 42% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing