TW
Tradeweb Markets Inc.
$106.20
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 60.6% above fair value
You pay
$106.20
Bear
$61.70
Fair
$66.14
Bull
$85.99
Bear
$61.70
-41.9%
ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$66.14
-37.7%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$85.99
-19.0%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (36.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
10.24x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $131.20 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.14 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $131.20 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly