TTWO
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
$209.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 413.1% above fair value
You pay
$209.38
Bear
$27.60
Fair
$40.81
Bull
$54.24
Bear
$27.60
-86.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$40.81
-80.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$54.24
-74.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
111.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
31.9%
vs 11.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (58 analysts)
$292.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
86%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $40.81 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $292.30 (from 58 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions