TTMI
TTM Technologies, Inc.
$85.50
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 239.3% above fair value
You pay
$85.50
Bear
$20.16
Fair
$25.20
Bull
$30.24
Bear
$20.16
-76.4%
$1.68 × 12x P/E
Fair
$25.20
-70.5%
$1.68 × 15x P/E
Bull
$30.24
-64.6%
$1.68 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.68$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
50.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$173.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
85%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.68, the base-case value is $25.20 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $173.25 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples