TTI
TETRA Technologies, Inc.
$6.11
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1147.1% above fair value
You pay
$6.11
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$0.49
Bull
$1.50
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $17M × 10x
Fair
$0.49
-92.0%
FCF $22M × 13x
Bull
$1.50
-75.5%
FCF $27M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
49.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$10.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
95%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $0.49 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $1.50 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.25 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 95% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 51% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential