TTI
TETRA Technologies, Inc.
$8.53
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 126.0% above fair value
You pay
$8.53
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$3.77
Bull
$17.06
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $15M × 10x
Fair
$3.77
-55.7%
FCF $20M × 13x
Bull
$17.06
+100.0%
FCF $24M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
75.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.77 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 98% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential