TTGT
TechTarget, Inc.
$4.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.5% below fair value
You pay
$4.82
Bear
$8.03
Fair
$13.98
Bull
$20.74
Bear
$8.03
+66.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$13.98
+190.0%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$20.74
+330.3%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
20.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.20 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $13.98 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $34.20 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions