TTGT
TechTarget, Inc.
$4.10
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.8% below fair value
You pay
$4.10
Bear
$7.03
Fair
$12.00
Bull
$17.69
Bear
$7.03
+71.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$12.00
+192.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$17.69
+331.4%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
13.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.5%
vs 16.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$34.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $34.20 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions