TTE
TotalEnergies SE
$91.60
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.6% above fair value
You pay
$91.60
Bear
$37.26
Fair
$67.06
Bull
$103.03
Bear
$37.26
-59.3%
FCF $9191M × 12x
Fair
$67.06
-26.8%
FCF $10813M × 16x
Bull
$103.03
+12.5%
FCF $12435M × 20x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.67 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.06 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential