TTE
TotalEnergies SE
$91.34
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.9% above fair value
You pay
$91.34
Bear
$42.18
Fair
$74.30
Bull
$113.07
Bear
$42.18
-53.8%
FCF $10485M × 12x
Fair
$74.30
-18.7%
FCF $12335M × 16x
Bull
$113.07
+23.8%
FCF $14185M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$95.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $74.30 per share. Range: $42.18 (bear) to $113.07 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential