TTE
TotalEnergies SE
$84.16
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.8% above fair value
You pay
$84.16
Bear
$41.82
Fair
$75.26
Bull
$115.63
Bear
$41.82
-50.3%
FCF $9191M × 12x
Fair
$75.26
-10.6%
FCF $10813M × 16x
Bull
$115.63
+37.4%
FCF $12435M × 20x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.26 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $103.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential